A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
